Weather and Forecasting

Article	Citations
Simulated QLCS Vortices in a High-Shear, Low-CAPE Environment	194
A Bayesian Framework for the Probabilistic Interpretation of Radar Observations and Severe Hailstorm Reports	76
Forecasting High Wind Events in the HRRR Model over Wyoming and Colorado. Part I: Evaluation of Wind Speeds and Gusts	72
Machine Learning–Derived Severe Weather Probabilities from a Warn-on-Forecast System	55
Forecasting Capability Verification of the Pangu-Weather and IFS HRES for the 2022 Summer Weather in Jiangsu Province, China	40
Reorganization of Snowfall beneath Cloud Top within the Comma Head Region of Two Extreme U.S. East Coast Winter Cyclones	39
Learning from Precipitation Events in the Wider Domain to Improve the Performance of a Deep Learning–Based Precipitation Nowcasting Model	34
The Development of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12	24
Parametric Postprocessing of Dual-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts	22
Assessing NOAA Rip-Current Hazard Likelihood Predictions: Comparison with Lifeguard Observations and Parameterizations of Bathymetric and Transient Rip-Current Types	19
An Objective Method for Clustering Observed Vertical Thermodynamic Profiles by Their Boundary Layer Structure	18
Characteristics of Warm Season Heavy Rainfall in Minnesota	18
Assessment of an Experimental Version of fvGFS for TC Genesis Forecasting Ability in the Western North Pacific	18
Prediction Skill of GEFSv12 for Southwest Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Associated Extreme Rainfall Events on Extended Range Scale over India	17
Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts from HAFS Using Satellite-Derived Ocean Profiles	16
The Physical Mechanisms of Hurricane Ida’s Extreme Rainfall in New York City: Insights from the Warn-on-Forecast System	16
A Forecast Cycle–Based Evaluation for Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Forecasts by the Operational HWRF Model	14
Estimating Current Tropical Cyclone Intensity from 183-GHz Microwave Satellite Observations Using a Convolutional Neural Network	13
Development and Validation of NOAA’s 20-Year Global Wave Ensemble Reforecast	13
Lidar-Based Evaluation of HRRR Performance in California’s Diablo Range	13
Evaluating the Performance of Microphysics Schemes against Observations during High-Impact Lake-Effect Snow Events	13
Forecasting U.S. Tornado Outbreak Activity and Associated Environments in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)	12
A Comparative Study of Various Approaches for Producing Probabilistic Forecasts of Upper-Level Aviation Turbulence	12
Evaluating Snowfall Forecasts over the Midwestern and Eastern United States in the GFDL C-SHiELD Model	12
Warning Value Chain Assessments for Storms Eunice (2022) and Ciarán (2023): Insights and Recommendations	11

The Forecast Skill of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in Two Global Ensembles	11
Equity, Inclusion, and Justice: An Opportunity for Action for AMS Publications Stakeholders	11
Center Fixing of Tropical Cyclones Using Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning Applied to High-Temporal-Resolution Geostationary Satellite Imagery	11
Winter Precipitation Type from Microwave Radiometers in New York State Mesonet Profiler Network	11
Journal Information and Table of Contents	11
Results from a Pseudo-Real-Time Next-Generation 1-km Warn-on-Forecast System Prototype	11
An Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Synergy between Profiles of Aircraft-Based Observations and Operational Radiosonde Reports over the United States	10
Short-Term Weather Forecast Skill of Artificial Neural Networks	10
Deterministic Rapid Intensity Forecast Guidance for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Area of Responsibility	10
Analyzing Tornado Warning Performance during Individual Storm Life Cycles	9
Predictable and Unpredictable Components of Wave-Like Pattern along the Asian Jet in JMA/MRI-CPS3 Seasonal Forecasts	9
Comparison of 2018–22 Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts before and after NOAA G-IV Missions	9
Effects of Prognostic Number Concentrations of Snow and Graupel on the Simulated Precipitation over the Korean Peninsula	9
A Deep Learning Model for Precipitation Nowcasting Using Multiple Optical Flow Algorithms	8
Regional Cloud Forecast Verification Using Standard, Spatial, and Object-Oriented Methods	8
The Development of a Consensus Machine Learning Model for Hurricane Rapid Intensification Forecasts with Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Data	8
Differences in the Effects of 10–30-Day Oscillations on Persistent Precipitation across Diverse Mei-Yu Climate Regions in China	8
Evaluation of 0–6-Hour Forecasts from the Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System and the Hybrid Analysis and Forecast System for Real-Time Cases in 2021	8
Convection Initiation under Weak Synoptic-Scale Forcing in Shanghai: Favorable Conditions and Lifting Mechanisms	8
Developing a Hail and Wind Damage Swath Event Database from Daily MODIS True Color Imagery and Storm Reports for Impact Analysis and Applications	8
Development of a Wave Model Component in the First Coupled Global Ensemble Forecast System at NOAA	8
The Meteorology of the Tathra Bushfire	8
Enhancing Seasonal Forecast Skills by Optimally Weighting the Ensemble from Fresh Data	8
Bias Correction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity for Ensemble Forecasts Using the XGBoost Method	8
A Wind Speed Probability–Based Error Swath	8
Masthead	8
Journal Information and Table of Contents	8
Quantifying the Uncertainty in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model under Sea Breeze and Low-Level Jet Conditions in the New York Bight: Importance to Offshore Wind Energy	7
Journal Information and Table of Contents	7
A Multivariable Convolutional Neural Network for Forecasting Synoptic-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the South China Sea	7
Masthead	7
Differences in Near-Storm Parameters Useful for Forecasting Intensity of Nocturnal and Diurnal Bow Echo Winds	7
Advantages to Writing Shorter Articles	7
A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part I: Traditional Machine Learning	7
Direct Assimilation of GOES-16 ABI All-Sky Radiances in HAFS Self-Cycled Dual-Resolution 3DEnVar System: System Description and a Case Study of Hurricane Laura (2020)	7
Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2	7
Prediction Skill of ENSO and ENSO Teleconnections in NorCPM: A Comparative Analysis with C3S	7
Masthead	7
Prediction Skill of GEFSv12 in Depicting Monthly Rainfall and Associated Extreme Events over Taiwan during the Summer Monsoon	7
Dynamically Adapting Mesh Refinement in an Unstructured Grid Global Model for Numerical Weather Prediction	7
A Study of Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Forecasts in Three Ensemble Prediction Systems	7
National Weather Service Field Testing of the Flash Flood Severity Index: A Retroactive Analysis from 2018 to 2022	7
A Simple Model for Predicting Tropical Cyclone Minimum Central Pressure from Intensity and Size	7
ProxyVis—A Proxy for Nighttime Visible Imagery Applicable to Geostationary Satellite Observations	7
Development of a Two-Step EOF Statistical Postprocessing Algorithm to Identify Patterns of Systematic Error and Variance within GEFSv12 Reforecasts	7
Sources of Tropical Cyclone Track Bifurcation in the COAMPS-TC and GFS Ensembles	7
A Markov Model Approach for Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Baseline Forecasts	7
Masthead	6
Atmospheric Motion Vector Retrieval by Using Deep Learning and Its Assimilation Applications	6
Evaluating the Multiscale Implementation of Valid Time Shifting within a Real-Time EnVar Data Assimilation and Forecast System for the 2022 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment	6

Masthead	6
Evaluation of Probabilistic Snow Forecasts for Winter Weather Operations at Intermountain West Airports	6
Initialized Seasonal Prediction with the NCAR Models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)	6
ProbSevere Version 3: Improved Exploitation of Data Fusion and Machine Learning for Nowcasting Severe Weather	6
Random Forest Approach for Improving Nonconvective High Wind Forecasting across Southeast Wyoming	6
Forecast Applications of GLM Gridded Products: A Data Fusion Perspective	6
Nowcasting Applications of Geostationary Satellite Hourly Surface PM2.5 Data	6
Leveraging Data-Driven Weather Models for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction Skill through Large-Scale Spectral Nudging	6
Investigating the Potential of Using Mixdown Altitudes to Forecast Peak Wind Gusts	6
Meteorological Benefits and Operational Applications of S-Band, Rapid-Scanning, Dual-Polarization Radar for Hail-Producing Storms	6
Toward the Development of an Impact-Based Decision Support Tool for Surface-Transportation Hazards. Part I: Tying Weather Variables to Road Hazards and Quantifying Impacts	6
CORRIGENDUM	6
Weather Associated with Rapid-Growth California Wildfires	5
Revisiting Environmental Wind and Moisture Calculations in the Context of Tropical Cyclone Intensification	5
Impact of Adjustments in Surface–Atmosphere Coupling for Model Forecasts in Stable Conditions	5
Performance of Experimental HAFS-B During the 2024 Hurricane Season	5
Masthead	5
Evaluation of HRRR Wind Speed Forecast and WindNinja Downscaling Accuracy during Santa Ana Wind Events in Southern California	5
Variability in High-Shear, Low-CAPE QLCS Environments in the Southeastern U.S.	5
Evaluation of NOAA Commercial Radio Occultation Soundings in Global Weather Forecasting	5
Using Radiosonde Observations to Assess the “Three Ingredients Method” to Forecast QLCS Mesovortices	5
Documenting the Progressions of Secondary Eyewall Formations	5
Assimilation of Doppler Radial Velocity Measurements of Biomass Burning Debris into the Warn-on-Forecast System	5
Weather to Subseasonal Prediction from the UFS Coupled Global Ensemble Forecast System	5
Integrating ASOS Ice Observations into the Freezing Rain Accumulation National Analysis (FRANA)	5
Masthead	5
The Impact of Analysis Correction-Based Additive Inflation on Subseasonal Tropical Prediction in the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability	5
A Comparison of the Impacts of Inner-Core, In-Vortex, and Environmental Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts during the 2017–20 Hurricane Seasons	5
Evaluation of the Short-Range Weather Application over Taiwan: A Focus on Extreme Precipitation Forecasts	5
Warm-Season Extreme Precipitation Forecast Performance in the HREF Means	5
Comparative Analysis of Ensemble and Deterministic Models for Fire Weather Index (FWI) System Forecasting	5
Quantifying Observation Representativeness Errors Using a Spatial Verification Method: A Lightning-Based Illustration	5
Impact of Horizontal Grid Resolution from Ten-Kilometric to Hectometric Scales on Radiation Fog Forecasting over North China Plain	5
Hybrid Numerical Weather Prediction: Downscaling GraphCast AI Forecasts for Downslope Windstorms	5
Just What Is “Good”? Musings on Hail Forecast Verification through Evaluation of FV3-HAILCAST Hail Forecasts	5
TCIC-SC-RNet: A Hybrid Model for TC Intensity Estimation Based on Transfer Learning	5
The Roles of Chaos Seeding and Multiple Perturbations in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting over Southern China	5
A Comparison between 2D and 3D Rescaling Masks of Initial Condition Perturbation in a 3-km Storm-Scale Ensemble Prediction System	5
Journal Information and Table of Contents	5
Radar Reflectivity–Based Model Initialization Using Specified Latent Heating (Radar-LHI) within a Diabatic Digital Filter or Pre-Forecast Integration	4
Exploring the Usefulness of Machine Learning Severe Weather Guidance in the Warn-on-Forecast System: Results from the 2022 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment	4
Spatial Aligned Mean: A Method to Improve Consensus Forecasts of Precipitation from Convection-Allowing Model Ensembles	4
A Computationally Efficient Consensus Model for Improving Hurricane Track Forecasting	4
History and Development of the USAF Agriculture Meteorology Modeling System and Resulting USAF–NASA Strategic Partnership	4
Exploring NWS Forecasters’ Assessment of AI Guidance Trustworthiness	4
A Comparison between Tornadic and Nontornadic QLCS Mesovortices Using a Multiradar Analysis of Operational and Experimental MRMS Products	4
Role of a Pacific Easterly Wave in the Genesis of Hagupit (2008)	4
Advancing the Seasonal Outlook of the Wet Seasons of Florida	4
Forecast Dropouts in the NAVGEM Model: Characterization with Respect to Other Models, Large-Scale Indices, and Ensemble Forecasts	4
Direct Radiative Effects of Aerosols on Numerical Weather Forecasts—A Comparison of Two Aerosol Datasets in the NCEP GFS	4
Journal Information and Table of Contents	4
Masthead	4
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part II: Forecast Performance	4
Journal Information and Table of Contents	4
Storm-Scale Predictability and Analysis of the 13 April 2020 Central Savannah River Area Tornado Outbreak	4
Verification of Multimodel Temperature Seasonal Forecasts in Europe	4
An Evaluation of NOAA Modeled and In Situ Soil Moisture Values and Variability across the Continental United States	4
Improved Short-Term Surface Wind Speed Forecasts Using Random Forest Approach with Sliding Time Window and Region Regression	4
Methods for Validating HRRR Simulated Cloud Properties for Different Weather Phenomena Using Satellite and Radar Observations	4
The WRF-Based Incremental Analysis Updates and Its Implementation in an Hourly Cycling Data Assimilation System	4
Impact of Ocean Resolution on Navy ESPC Forecast Skill	4
Improving Afternoon Thunderstorm Prediction over Complex Terrain with the Assimilation of Dense Ground-Based Observations: Four Cases in the Taipei Basin	4
A Probabilistic Prediction of Rogue Waves from a WAVEWATCH III Model for the Northeast Pacific	4
Multimodel Forecast Evaluation of the Track and Intensity of Supertyphoon Doksuri in 2023	4
The Statistical Relationship of Lightning Activity and Short-Duration Rainfall Events over Guangzhou, China, in 2017	4
The Relationship between Northeast Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures, Synoptic Evolution, and Surface Air Temperatures over the Pacific Northwest	4
Storm Displacement Errors in the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System	4
Toward the Development of an Impact-Based Decision Support Tool for Surface-Transportation Hazards. Part II: An Hourly Winter Storm Severity Index	4
A Machine Learning–Based Bias Correction Method for GFS 2-m Temperature	4
Evaluating Machine Learning–Based Probabilistic Convective Hazard Forecasts Using The HRRR: Quantifying Hazard Predictability and Sensitivity to Training Choices	3
Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution	3
Quantification of QLCS Tornadogenesis, Associated Characteristics, and Environments across a Large Sample	3
Verification of Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts of the Korean Integrated Model for 2020–21	3
Masthead	3
Masthead	3
Masthead	3
The Impact of Incorporating the Air–Lake Interaction on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over Southern Ontario, Canada	3
Performance of a Convective-Scale Ensemble Prediction System on 2017 Warm-Season Afternoon Thunderstorms over Taiwan	3
Masthead	3
Subbasin Forecasts of Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Skill and Challenges	3

Improved Predictability of Summertime Rossby Wave Breaking Frequency near Japan in JMA/MRI-CPS3 Seasonal Forecasts	3
Impact of GNSS RO Data on the Prediction of Atmospheric River Events: A ROMEX Experiment	3
Subseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation	3
Hurricane Forecasting: A Novel Multimodal Machine Learning Framework	3
Impacts of Sampling and Storm-Motion Estimates on RUC/RAP-Based Discriminations of Nontornadic and Tornadic Supercell Environments	3
Simulations of Severe Convective Systems Using 1- versus 3-km Grid Spacing	3
A Summary of U.S. Watershed Precipitation Forecast Skill and the National Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations Expansion Pathfinder Effort	3
A Simple Bias and Uncertainty Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Forecasts	3
Verification of Probabilistic SPC Convective Outlooks from 2002–2023 Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables and Optical Flow Displacement	3
Evaluation of Aerosol Optical Depth Forecasts from NOAA’s Global Aerosol Forecast Model (GEFS-Aerosols)	3
Collaboration among Forecasters to Issue Severe Weather Hazard Information and Warnings Using the Hazard Services–Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) Tool	3
Estimating the Influence of Wind Load on Ice- and Snow-Covered Wires and Trees for Use in Impact-Based Indices	3
Intensification of Hurricane Sally (2020) over the Mississippi River Plume	3
Improving Precipitation Forecasts with Convolutional Neural Networks	3
On the ROC Area of Ensemble Forecasts for Rare Events	3
Evaluation of an Improved AROME Configuration for Fog Forecasts during the SOFOG3D Campaign	3
Updates in the NCEP GFS PBL and Convection Models with Environmental Wind Shear Effect and Modified Entrainment and Detrainment Rates and Their Impacts on the GFS Hurricane and CAPE Forecasts	3
WoFS and the Wisdom of the Crowd: The Impact of the Warn-on-Forecast System on Hourly Forecasts during the 2021 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment	3
Collaborative Exploration of Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance for NWS Forecast Operations	3
Doppler Lidar and Mobile Radiosonde Observation-Based Evaluation of Warn-on-Forecast System Predicted Near-Supercell Environments during TORUS 2019	3
Flow Dependence of Medium-Range Precipitation Forecast Skill over California	3
Environmental Characteristics Supporting Warm-Season Coastal Convection Initiation near Houston, Texas	3
Structural Forecasting for Short-Term Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance	3
Using Artificial Neural Networks to Improve CFS Week-3–4 Precipitation and 2-m Air Temperature Forecasts	3
Masthead	3
Journal Information and Table of Contents	3
An Objective Scoring Method for Evaluating the Comparative Performance of Automated Storm Identification and Tracking Algorithms	3
Evaluating Medium-Range Forecast Performance of Regional-Scale Circulation Patterns	3
Improving Best Track Verification of Tropical Cyclones: A New Metric to Identify Forecast Consistency	3
ProbSevere LightningCast: A Deep-Learning Model for Satellite-Based Lightning Nowcasting	3