Earth System Dynamics

Article	Citations
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways	258
Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled	196
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis	163
Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery	160
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE	104
Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture	81
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention	79
Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models	77
Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes	71
Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean	70
Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability	66
Sedimentary microplankton distributions are shaped by oceanographically connected areas	61
An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles	61
Modelling forest ruin due to climate hazards	55
The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence	54
Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region	54
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world	50
Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario	39
Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea	38
Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts	36
Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables	35
Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events	34
Widespread greening suggests increased dry-season plant water availability in the Rio Santa valley, Peruvian Andes	34
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates	34
Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO2 uptake	34

Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model	33
Driving sustainability transitions through financial tipping points	32
Changes in apparent temperature and PM2.5 around the Beijing–Tianjin megalopolis under greenhouse gas and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios	32
The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective	30
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6	30
Investigation of the extreme wet–cold compound events changes between 2025–2049 and 1980–2004 using regional simulations in Greece	29
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review	25
Variability and predictability of a reduced-order land–atmosphere coupled model	24
Regionally optimized high-resolution input datasets enhance the representation of snow cover in CLM5	23
Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region	23
Similar North Pacific variability despite suppressed El Niño variability in the warm mid-Pliocene climate	23
Impact of groundwater representation on heat events in regional climate simulations over Europe	22
Scaling artificial heat islands to enhance precipitation in the United Arab Emirates	22
Agricultural management effects on mean and extreme temperature trends	22
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations	21
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes	21
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution	20
Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors	19
Freshwater input from glacier melt outside Greenland alters modeled northern high-latitude ocean circulation	18
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance	18
Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition	18
Compensatory effects conceal large uncertainties in the modelled processes behind the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and CO2	18
Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy	16
Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries	16
The carbonate pump feedback on alkalinity and the carbon cycle in the 21st century and beyond	16
Potential effect of the marine carbon cycle on the multiple equilibria window of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	16
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments	16
Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems	16
Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles	15
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability	15
Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles	15
The sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to volcanic aerosol spatial distribution in the MPI Grand Ensemble	15
Process-based analysis of terrestrial carbon flux predictability	15
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw	14
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea	14
A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios	13
A quantitative assessment of air–sea heat flux trends from ERA5 since 1950 in the North Atlantic basin	13
An enhanced Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought-monitoring method integrating land surface characteristics	13
CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?	12
Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble	12
Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: how does the distant past determine today's global rate of energy consumption?	12
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming	12
Quantifying memory and persistence in the atmosphere–land and ocean carbon system	12
Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics	12
Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy	11
Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon	11
The impacts of elevated CO2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest	11
The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends	11
Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America	11
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China	11

Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points	11
Direct and indirect application of univariate and multivariate bias corrections on heat-stress indices based on multiple regional-climate-model simulations	11
Land cover and management effects on ecosystem resistance to drought stress	10
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions	10
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model	10
Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems	10
Indian Ocean marine biogeochemical variability and its feedback on simulated South Asia climate	10
Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming	10
Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways	10
Observation-based temperature and freshwater noise over the Atlantic Ocean	10
Projected changes in land carbon store over the 21st century: what contributions from land use change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition?	10
Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models	9
Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System	9
Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory	9
Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future equatorial Atlantic and Guinea Coast rainfall	9
A simple physical model for glacial cycles	9
The implications of maintaining Earth's hemispheric albedo symmetry for shortwave radiative feedbacks	9
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model	9
Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops	9
The response of the regional longwave radiation balance and climate system in Europe to an idealized afforestation experiment	9
Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century	9
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing	9
The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100	9
Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling	8
Remote carbon cycle changes are overlooked impacts of land cover and land management changes	8
Disentangling the climate divide with emotional patterns: a network-based mindset reconstruction approach	8
Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention	8
Regional dynamical and statistical downscaling temperature, humidity and wind speed for the Beijing region under stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering	8
Diagnosing aerosol–meteorological interactions on snow within Earth system models: a proof-of-concept study over High Mountain Asia	8
Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change	8
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics	8
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change	8
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100	8
Countries most exposed to individual and concurrent extremes and near-permanent extreme conditions at different global warming levels	8
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought	7
Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era	7
The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa	7
Diagnosing the causes of AMOC slowdown in a coupled model: a cautionary tale	7
The global impact of the transport sectors on the atmospheric aerosol and the resulting climate effects under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)	7
Carbon dioxide removal via macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking: an Earth system modeling study	7
Wind speed stilling and its recovery due to internal climate variability	7
Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States	6
Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions	6
Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway	6
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation	6
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements	6
Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe	6
Spatiotemporal changes in the boreal forest in Siberia over the period 1985–2015 against the background of climate change	6
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe	6
Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market	6
Understanding variations in downwelling longwave radiation using Brutsaert's equation	6
Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing	6
Dakar Niño under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model	6
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint	5
Global climate change and the Baltic Sea ecosystem: direct and indirect effects on species, communities and ecosystem functioning	5
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization	5
ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement	5
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs	5
Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability	5
Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection	5
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	5
Estimating ocean heat content from the ocean thermal expansion parameters using satellite data	5
Effect of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on atmospheric pCO2 variations	5
How can solar geoengineering and mitigation be combined under climate targets?	5
Sea-ice thermodynamics can determine waterbelt scenarios for Snowball Earth	4
Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes	4
Improving the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing	4
How does the phytoplankton–light feedback affect the marine N2O inventory?	4
Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model	4
Natural marine bromoform emissions in the fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model NorESM2	4
Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity	4
Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6	4
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm	4
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review	4
Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods	4
Low confidence in multi-decadal trends of wind-driven upwelling across the Benguela Upwelling System	4
The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections	4
Developing the Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS)	4
Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways	4
Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change	4

Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China's Loess Plateau	4
Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3	4